China Plans for Tomorrow

Fourth Plenum of 20th CPC Central Committee (Photo by Xinhua)

“We must have the courage to face major tests amid high winds, rough waves and even raging storms, and tackle difficulties, risks and challenges with a spirit of historical initiative – focusing on doing our own work well to write a new chapter in sustaining China’s economic growth and long-term social stability.”

— From China’s recently-adopted 15th Five-Year Plan

Can you imagine a five-year strategic planning process at the national level in the United States, let alone one issuing a statement like this?

China’s government held the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China this week — four days of discussion and voting to set the social, economic, and policy direction for the country from 2026 to 2030. The P.R.C.’s 15^th Five-Year Plan, like its predecessors, was foreshadowed and preordained, but it reflects a longstanding, deliberate practice of Chinese governance. Planning, preparing, and pivoting are second nature to Beijing.

Jingxi Hotel, Beijing, site of the Fourth Plenum of 20th CPC Central Committee (Photo by Andy Wong)

This year’s Plenum began with uncharacteristic intrigue. Nine high-ranking military generals, including the nation’s No. 2, were expelled from the Party just days before on allegations of criminal corruption. Dozens of the 205-member Central Committee — including those nine — did not attend, marking the lowest turnout in decades.

This was not simply a bureaucratic meeting; it was political theater capped with the release of a turgid, 5,000-word communique. Symbolism and signaling matters as much as substance. Despite surging exports (though fewer to America), China faces severe domestic headwinds: youth unemployment, debt defaults, sagging consumption, and local governments foraging for funds. These pressures loom over a population increasingly wary and weary of economic turbulence.

Excerpt from Communique at Fourth Plenum of 20th CPC Central Committee

China’s new roadmap lays out ambitious, albeit coded, goals. Economically, the plan calls for “high-quality development,” a “robust domestic market,” and “scientific and technological self-reliance and strength.” Socially, it pledges “cultural and ethical progress” and improved “quality of life.” Politically and militarily, it promises “deepening reform” and a “stronger national security shield.”

Strategic planning isn’t glamorous, but China does it — relentlessly, behind closed doors and then publicly. The dictates of the state will become infused into day-to-day operations across widespread provincial and municipal governments. This ongoing exercise is a living, breathing SWOT analysis at a countrywide scale. And as I watch from afar, I can’t help but think of home. At a time when the social, legal, economic, and physical infrastructure of America is being chipped away and knocked down piece by piece, we, too, could benefit from strategic forethought.