#AndrewSingerChina Newsletter Vol. 3, Issue 28

Whither China and America?

A friend and I were discussing the recent temporary tariff pause in the de facto economic decoupling between America and China. She commented that Americans might finally be beginning to see past the distorted China the American government and most of the mainstream media scream about from the bastions. Americans wiping clear assumptions and spin and seeing the real China would be music to my ears (and a major benefit to America as a whole). But we are not there yet. Not even close.

“The Frog at the Bottom of the Well” (井底之蛙) is a famous Daoist fable that calls out the perils of limited perspective and entrenched beliefs and encourages people to challenge assumptions for deeper understanding. It is attributed to Zhuangzi, one of the top two in the Chinese Daoist pantheon with Laozi. The tale is analogous, but richer, than “Not seeing the forest for the trees.”

A frog lives at the bottom of a deep well. He leads a safe and comfortable life. He has friends, food, and focus. He is the center of attention and secure, sunning himself beneath the bright blue circular sky far above. The well defines his existence. The well is his world. And it is good.

One day a traveling sea turtle happens upon the well. Looking in he sees the frog. The happy frog invites the turtle down, excited to show off his home. But try as he might, the turtle cannot fit. Instead, he regales the frog with stories about his home in the Eastern Sea and beyond. He describes a world of diversity, expansiveness, opportunity, and danger.

The frog croaks in incredulity. What nonsense the sea turtle spouts. The frog cannot (nor would he want to) see beyond his comfort zone. His worldview colors his thoughts and reactions to a bigger outside.

America is now the frog. The isolation of our proverbial well is increasingly counterproductive and dangerous. We have blinded ourselves to the reality of the wider world, China in particular. We ignore what is happening to our standing and reception abroad. This colors how we react and respond to short- and long-term changes and challenges beyond and within our shores. America is powerful, but not omnipotent. Our power and global impact are not pre-ordained.

China is a major beneficiary of America’s well-existence.

World Leader. The following sentence appeared in a recent Bulwark newsletter: "The United States is no longer willing to lead the world order, but China is not yet capable of leading it." To me, this begs the more salient, two-part question, Can, let alone should, one nation lead the world order?

China, among others, is pushing for a multipolar world to replace the western liberal democratic order dominant since the end of World War II. This dream is that the world order will no longer be driven and dictated solely by one nation or bloc of nations. China wants global power diffused broadly, to prominently include China at the table and as a leader.

Whether America likes it or not--we are currently in denial, such a world order is in fact slowly gathering strength and viability. We cannot stop it. The genie is out of the bottle. Important players in this evolution are a resurgent China, a dogged Russia, and a dynamic and organizing Global South.

America’s headlong retreat from global governance and connection is fueling this multipolar shift. A few examples are America’s boycotting the G-20, cutting off foreign aid and shutting down aid organizations, and attacking allies while encouraging adversaries.

World Marketplace. Chinese companies need America for the same reason American corporations still want into China. They see a massive marketplace of consumers to buy our/their stuff. But the reality is not so clear cut.

China’s economy and people benefit from selling in America and want/need exports to continue. For its part, America’s economy is dependent on Chinese resources, parts, and finished products. This is why both countries blinked into the tariff pause. The pain of the abrupt cessation of most trade between the two nations quickly became overwhelming. This being said, America is not the only game in Town. China is the top trading partner for more than 60% of the world’s countries (120+ countries at the moment).

As for Chinese imports, recent actions demonstrate starkly that China does not need the U.S. as much as America needs China. China swiftly re-sourced U.S. beef from Australia and South America; U.S. pork from the EU, Canada, and Brazil; and U.S. soybeans from Brazil. American farmers will never completely recoup from these economic shifts. If China has established more stable, more economical, and friendlier business partners, why go back (other than in pieces for political reasons)?

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We must escape the well to thrive. But first we need to recognize that we are even in one. The sea turtle is telling us about the world, about China, if we are willing to listen. At the beginning, middle, and end of the day, we have to understand China as it is, not as we say it is.